2026 World Cup Win Probabilities
Based on prediction market data (Polymarket, $323M+ volume) ยท Updated pre-tournament
1
๐ซ๐ท
FranceGroup I
Favorites; elite depth across all positions.
17.5%
2
๐ช๐ธ
SpainGroup H
Strong favorites; reigning European champions.
16.2%
3
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
EnglandGroup L
High potential; consistency concerns in knockouts.
10.9%
4
๐ฆ๐ท
ArgentinaGroup J
Defending champs; squad transition underway.
10.4%
5
๐ต๐น
PortugalGroup K
Best midfield depth; strong tournament pedigree.
7.8%
6
๐ง๐ท
BrazilGroup C
Elite talent; injury concerns in depth.
7.6%
7
๐ฉ๐ช
GermanyGroup E
Young, exciting squad; rebuilt under Nagelsmann.
4.5%
8
๐ณ๐ฑ
NetherlandsGroup F
Talented squad; historically inconsistent in tournaments.
3.8%
9
๐บ๐ธ
United StatesGroup D
Host advantage; strongest generation of US players.
3.2%
10
๐ง๐ช
BelgiumGroup G
New generation emerging; tournament experience limited.
2.8%
11
๐ฒ๐ฆ
MoroccoGroup C
Dark horse; semi-finalist in 2022, strong defense.
2.1%
12
๐ณ๐ด
NorwayGroup I
Haaland factor; first major tournament appearance.
1.5%
13
๐ฒ๐ฝ
MexicoGroup A
Host nation boost; historically Round of 16 exits.
1.2%
Disclaimer: Win probabilities are derived from prediction market implied odds (Polymarket). They reflect collective market sentiment, not official forecasts. Markets may change as the tournament approaches.